New Year's predictions from Michal Siewniak


I love sport, football in particular. Although I had an opportunity to serve as a local councillor in Welwyn Hatfield, I occasionally feel that I am a “spectator”, not a “player”, when it comes to my voting rights in the UK.

In a way, it is a shame that although I have been living here for almost 16 years, I have always paid taxes, I have always worked and I have not been a “burden”, I have never had a chance to cast my vote in GE or, more importantly, in the EU referendum.

When I first visited the Houses of Parliament, I was told that “taxation equals representation”. Really? I don’t think so.

I don’t have any predictable abilities or a magic wand.

I am also aware that we have only a few days ago ended the transition period and therefore the “dust has truly settled yet”, however if someone asked me to guess what will happen in the UK in the next 5-10 years, I would say that:

1. Scotland.

The Prime Minister will have to eventually give in and allow the people of Scotland to have another referendum on their independence. Scotland has voted to remain in the EU (62%) and many Scots might feel that the decision to leave the EU has been imposed on them.

If I was Scottish, I would also want to ‘take back control’ and I would like my ‘sovereignty back’! The longer the UK government resists calls for the second referendum, the easier it will be for the Scottish National Party (SNP) to win the referendum. In actual fact, if the referendum was to take place today, various polls show that the SNP would win it anyway. The day after winning the independence vote, SNP will apply to join the EU. And they will, quite quickly.

2. Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland has also voted to remain (55.8%). However, regardless of the Brexit vote, the situation on the island of Ireland is quite complex.

I have a feeling that, due to a number of political, ideological and economic factors, we might see calls and some pressure for the Irish reunification.

The referendum is won by the republican voters. Northern Ireland leaves the United Kingdom.

3. The Welsh government won’t be sitting on the fence and therefore, it is possible that calls for a greater devolution will only intensify in years to come.

4. I can’t see any elections between now and May 2024.

The Conservative Party has a huge majority in the House of Commons however, I am quite certain that the Conservative Party will lose the next two General Elections, with or without Mr Johnson as a Prime Minister.

Could these possible outcomes have been avoided, had we voted to remain in the EU?  Quite possibly. 

Could this be the end of the United Kingdom as we know it? Quite possibly.

From now on; there is no more blaming Brussels for the UK government faults and failures.

In my view, the political future of the UK has never been more uncertain and unpredictable.

I am also aware that until I become a UK citizen, I won’t be able to vote for or choose my local MP, however I will do my best to continue being part of the political and democratic process wherever I am or whatever I do.

I will now allow for the outcome of the EU referendum to define my “civic future” in Britain. I still have a lot to offer and I will not be treated as a second class citizen, only because of the colour of my passport.


Michal Siewniak

Reproduced with kind permission from LibDemVoice

 

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